CoreLogic® has released its Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for October 2024, revealing that U.S. home price growth remained relatively flat, with a 3.4% year-over-year increase and a marginal 0.02% rise from September. This stagnation signals that home prices have largely plateaued since the summer, with some localized price increases in specific areas of the country.
The Northeast region has shown resilience despite economic challenges like slower job growth and rising interest rates. States like New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire posted some of the highest year-over-year price gains, with increases of 8.1%, 7.5%, and 6.3%, respectively. These states even hit new price peaks in October.
Conversely, Washington D.C., Idaho, and Montana were among the states with the largest declines from their previous price highs, dropping by 3.5%, 2.5%, and 2.1%, respectively. However, Washington D.C.’s prices still saw a 4.7% annual increase. Hawaii was the only state to experience a year-over-year decline in home prices.
While regional price fluctuations are evident, CoreLogic’s forecast suggests that national home price growth will remain subdued, with single-family home prices expected to peak in April 2025. Currently, the median price for all single-family homes stands at $385,000.
“Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October,” said CoreLogic’s Chief Economist, Dr. Selma Hepp. “A slight increase in home prices, following a brief decline in late summer, is due to a temporary drop in mortgage rates in August, which helped boost homebuying demand. However, as the housing market enters a slower season, home prices are unlikely to show significant shifts in the near future.”
At the metro level, Chicago saw the highest year-over-year growth, with home prices rising 6.4%, followed by Miami at 6.2% and Las Vegas at 5.6%. On the other hand, markets like Provo-Orem, Utah, are at significant risk of price declines. The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) flagged Provo-Orem as having a 70%-plus probability of a price drop within the next year, with other cities such as Salt Lake City, Atlanta, Tucson, and Palm Bay also showing high risks of declines.
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. single-family home prices grew 3.4% year-over-year in October 2024, with a slight 0.02% increase from September.
- CoreLogic forecasts a 2.4% increase in U.S. home prices by October 2025.
- Chicago led metro areas with the highest growth at 6.4%, followed by Miami at 6.2%.
- New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire saw strong price gains, while Hawaii was the only state to experience a year-over-year price decline.
- The next CoreLogic HPI press release, for November 2024 data, will be issued on January 7, 2025.
CoreLogic’s Home Price Index is built using public records and repeat-sales transaction data, offering a reliable tool for tracking home price trends. Its HPI Forecasts provide projections for future market conditions based on econometric models, helping to predict price movements across different regions and market segments.
